White Pill Wednesday #13
Nuclear Necessity · The Day After
Black Pill(s)
Nuclear Necessity
“The Story of the human race is War. Except for brief and precarious interludes, there has never been peace in the world; and before history began, murderous strife was universal and unending.”
—Winston Churchill
For as long as I can remember I’ve always been fascinated with the Atomic Age. This is the period of history that followed the detonation of the first nuclear weapon - 1945 and onwards. Nuclear power, a scientific development that has the potential to either enable mankind to become a spacefaring civilization or ensure its downfall. How could one not be enthralled by such a thing?
There’s so many historic moments surrounding nuclear tests, accidents, and applications that are captivating to say the least. Some include:
Operation Hardtack 1 where in 1958 the US detonated nuclear weapons underwater
Chernobyl Disaster where a nuclear reactor exploded in the Soviet Union in 1986.
Demon Core experiment gone wrong during the Manhattan Project in 1945.
The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
And all it takes to decide which future is ours to follow is one slip-up. One miscalculation. One misread of a situation. One failure of human judgement.
One mistake along the lengthy daisy-chain of command through which dozens of orders are handed down by men and women we don’t know, will never meet, and do not elect.
Men and women who as you read this are sitting in top secret facilities on 24/7 rotating shifts staring at screens and monitoring the globe for any “mistakes”. Guards, military brass, presidents, bureaucrats and everyone in between. Thousands of people around the world who are entrusted with the ultimate responsibility.
Little side-note here - the President of the United States (POTUS) is the ONLY person who has unilateral power to order a nuclear strike and does not require approval from anyone else.
But don’t take it from me - instead take the work of Annie Jacobsen in her new book Nuclear War: A Scenario. Previously she has written extensively about:
Area 51: An uncensored history of America’s top-secret military base which delves into the secretive operations and experiments conducted at the infamous Nevada compound.
Operation Paperclip: An exploration of the real and secret US gov’t program that brought Nazi scientists to America after World War II.
The Pentagon's Brain: Retelling of DARPA’s history as America’s top-secret military research agency and their role in developing cutting-edge military technology.
Phenomena: The role of the US gov’t in their investigation into extrasensory perception, psychokinesis, paranormal abilities and their potential military applications.
Surprise, Kill, Vanish: History of the CIA paramilitary unit, its operators, and their clandestine missions including interviews with ex-agents.
Her most recent book contains gov’t intelligence-backed assessments of nuclear weapons and what would happen if they were to be used. This not only includes visceral descriptions of the devastation they would cause but also the exact steps along the chain of command that would happen should a nuke be fired.
Spoiler alert - we all die.
"The survivors would envy the dead"
-Nikita Khrushchev
No amount of hunkering down or doom prepping will save you. If the initial blast doesn’t get you - the coming fallout and nuclear winter will.
Here’s an excerpt from Jacobsen’s book that vividly describes what would happen if a nuclear bomb were to go off in Washington DC:
In the first fraction of a millisecond after this thermonuclear bomb strikes the Pentagon outside Washington, D.C., there is light. Soft X-ray light with a very short wavelength. The light superheats the surrounding air to millions of degrees, creating a massive fireball that expands at millions of miles per hour. Within a few seconds, this fireball increases to a diameter of a little more than a mile (5,700 feet across), its light and heat so intense that concrete surfaces explode, metal objects melt or evaporate, stone shatters, humans instantaneously convert into combusting carbon.
The five-story, five-sided structure of the Pentagon and everything inside its 6.5 million square feet of office space explodes into superheated dust from the initial flash of light and heat, all the walls shattering with the near-simultaneous arrival of the shock wave, all 27,000 employees perishing instantly.
Not a single thing in the fireball remains.
Nothing.
Ground zero is zeroed.
Traveling at the speed of light, the radiating heat from the fireball ignites everything flammable within its line of sight several miles out in every direction. Curtains, paper, books, wood fences, people’s clothing, dry leaves explode into flames and become kindling for a great firestorm that begins to consume a 100-or-more-square-mile area that, prior to this flash of light, was the beating heart of American governance and home to some 6 million people.
Several hundred feet northwest of the Pentagon, all 639 acres of Arlington National Cemetery—including the 400,000 sets of bones and gravestones honoring the war dead, the 3,800 African American freedpeople buried in section 27, the living visitors paying respects on this early spring afternoon, the groundskeepers mowing the lawns, the arborists tending to the trees, the tour guides touring, the white-gloved members of the Old Guard keeping watch over the Tomb of the Unknowns—are instantly transformed into combusting and charred human figurines. Into black organic-matter powder that is soot. Those incinerated are spared the unprecedented horror that begins to be inflicted on the 1 to 2 million more gravely injured people not yet dead in this first Bolt out of the Blue nuclear strike.
The description goes into much greater detail as to what happens when the blast radius extends - see the video above for reference. Keep in mind these are the consequences of just 1 thermonuclear bomb going off - nevermind what happens when hundreds or thousands go off. For perspective see the infographic below for a visual representation of the estimated global nuclear weapon stockpile as of the mid 2010’s.
The “Mad King” nuclear war scenario Jacobsen describes in her book goes something like this:
North Korea launches a surprise missile strike against the US including an ICBM towards the Pentagon and a submarine-launched ICBM at a nuclear reactor in California.
Hovering 22,300 miles above planet Earth a car-sized sensor from the US Defense Department’s SBIRS geosynchronous satellite system spots the fire from the missile’s hot rocket exhaust through the cloud cover. This happens within a few tenths of a second after ignition.
Within 6 seconds of the launch computer algorithms in the National Military Command Center have already begun predicting the missile’s intercontinental trajectory.
Within 30 seconds of launch every computer in the underground Cheyenne Mountain Complex generates a classified message: NUCLEAR LAUNCH ALERT
This kicks in a complex multi-faceted process of information sharing and decision making that ends with POTUS unilaterally declaring nuclear launch on all 82 North Korean targets.
POTUS has but 6 minutes from the initial launch to make this decision as it takes only 30 minutes for an ICBM to travel from North Korea to any US city - 10 minutes if it comes from a nuclear submarine.
A nuclear submarine that is so hard to locate that “it would be easier to find a grapefruit-sized object in space” according to former Chief of Nuclear Submarine Forces, Admiral Michael Connor.
Due to North Korea’s location the counter-attack sent by the US has to fly through Russia as the ICBM’s do not have enough range to go any other way. This provokes Russia to order an all-out nuclear attack on the US.
Which leads to a global nuclear war that unfolds in the matter of 72 minutes - leaving billions dead, billions more that wish they were dead, and the Earth poisoned for decades if not centuries to come.
Please consider reading Jacobsen’s book as I cannot emphasize enough just how inadequate my cursory explanation is compared to the detailed breakdown she writes with an exhausting list of legitimate sources to back it up.
And that’s just the beginning of what would happen - we haven’t even touched on the topic of Nuclear Winter.
After the initial blast, shockwave, and radiation fallout each of the nuclear blasts becomes a megafire. Each ground-zero becomes 100-300 square miles of fire as it continues to burn. Now multiply that by 1000 or 2000 happening simultaneously around the globe.
Everything ignites - from the asphalt on the ground to the infrastructure around it. The hazardous exhaust of which endlessly billows into the atmosphere.
330 BILLION pounds of soot and ash is lofted into the troposphere - made up of everything that is incinerated.
The sun will then be blocked out by a factor of 70% for 7-10 years globally as the wind currents distribute this layer of ash. Global cooling commences as large bodies of water freeze under several sheets of ice.
All forms of agriculture die out as does anything that relies on the sun. Those that survive are forced to live underground and revert to a hunter-gatherer way of life as they constantly fight for their survival. Carl Sagan and Owen Toon said as much back in 1983.
Once the ashes settle and nuclear winter comes to an end as the sun returns you also have to consider the depleted ozone layer. Which in turn makes the radiation from the sun poisonous as Earth no longer has a strong enough ozone to shield humanity from its rays.
With the thawing of all the once frozen lands comes the revival of pathogens and plagues. Not to mention the rapid population boom of small-bodied animals like insects contrasting with the slow march towards extinction of the large-bodied animals like humans.
Professor Toon said it best
“66 million years ago an asteroid hit Earth killing all dinosaurs and wiping out 70% of all species. And Nuclear war would likely do the same.”
And all of this can happen at any given moment.
Like right now.
Or in 5 minutes.
All it takes is a self-destructive tyrant like Kim Jong Un and an ego that says
“If I’m going - then I’m taking you all with me.”
You wouldn’t even know about it.
And there’s not a single thing you can do to stop it.
It would put an end to all of the progress that humanity has made over several centuries and potentially wipe out our entire race. All it takes is one mistake or madman - neither of which humanity is lacking. Here’s a comprehensive list of all known Nuclear close calls that we’ve had since the 1950’s. And these are just the ones that we know of.
Before reading the next section just take a moment and sit with all of that information spinning in your mind. This is the reality every single person on the planet lives with but forgets for the most part as it fades into the background of life. Almost seems like an afterthought until Barbenheimer makes it into the zeitgeist where we receive a sobering reminder that all this can go away in a matter of minutes.
Accept the anxiety - it’s not going away anytime soon.
White Pill(s)
The Day After
During the Cold War in 1983 the estimated global stockpile of nuclear weapons reached a near peak of 60,000 - just 10,000 shy of the record 70,000 in 1986. I specifically mention 1983 because it is the same year that the movie The Day After was released.
On November 20th, 1983 The Day After premiered on ABC - depicting a fictional nuclear war over Germany between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. At the time it was considered to be the most realistic depiction of what the impact of a nuclear war would look like. Here’s the movie in its entirety:
More than 100 million tuned in to the initial broadcast making it the 7th highest rated non-sports show back then. Suffice to say this movie caused quite a stir and helped sway public opinion on the issue of nuclear warfare by informing them of the catastrophic consequences.
What followed the premiere only helped accelerate this. Immediately after the movie came the panel discussion hosted by ABC called Viewpoint. This was a commercial free televised broadcast of a discussion between Carl Sagan, William F. Buckley, Robert McNamara, Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft, and Elie Wiesel.
This provided a platform for the panelists to discuss the public’s reactions, fears, and concerns raised by The Day After. You can watch it in its entirety here:
This was followed by campaigns from citizens and organizations that increasingly advocated for nuclear disarmament. The zeitgeist was forever changed and the consequences of nuclear war were eviscerated into the psyche of the populace.
Prior to the film’s release President Reagan was told by his chief of staff to avoid watching the movie but instead had it screened at Camp David a month before it was televised. After watching the film Reagan noted in his diary that the film was “very effective and left me greatly depressed.”
It was only 3 years before in 1980 when Reagan pushed for his “peace through strength” approach to the Cold War. He withdrew from disarmament agreements, declared the Soviet Union an evil empire, and took to the nation’s airwaves to announce America’s space-based missile defense system known as “Star Wars”.
Fast forward to January 1984 after Reagan saw The Day After he delivered a speech where he spoke of common concerns with the USSR, the mutual desire for peace, and the urgent need to address “dangerous misunderstandings” between Moscow and Washington. You can watch it in its entirety here:
After this, Reagan continued to call for dialogue, cooperation, and understanding with the Soviets. A monumental shift in approach from his earlier years to say the least.
And by 1987, during the negotiations on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty between the US and USSR, the film The Day After was broadcast on Soviet state television without interruptions. Little is known about the Soviet public’s reaction to the film but I would assume it was similar to that of the American people. Shortly afterwards the INF treaty was signed between the superpowers and the de-escalation of the Cold War followed.
It was nothing short of a miracle. The global stockpile of nuclear weapons went from 70,000 in 1986 to 12,000 in present day 2024. Relations between the superpowers eased up and made room for dialogue. Incredible when you think about the role that the movie played in all this.
We’re certainly not out of the woods yet - it takes less than 100 nuclear weapons to destroy the planet never mind the 12,000 we have right now. But this story provides a critical lesson for humanity if we are to create a solution to this problem. A mission we must undertake with the utmost urgency considering our failure would result in our extinction.
The Day After and its consequences ought to serve as a permanent reminder to each and every one of us that no issue is too big to affect. The world has been on the literal brink of Mutually Assured Destruction countless times and yet we were able to step back from the precipice every time so far.
Barring the advent of visionary policies or geopolitical wizardry the scourge of nuclear war is not going away anytime soon. Especially not when NATO-backed Ukraine and Russia are at war with one another. Resulting in Putin suspending participation in the last remaining nuclear treaty with the US. And this little gem only recorded 4 months ago:
But don’t let that discourage your outlook on this. The Day After had a significant impact on deterring nuclear conflict at a time when the possibility of it happening was greater than it is now. What does that say for what is possible in 2024?
100 Million views back in 1983 is considered mid by today’s standards of virality. For Christ’s Sake, Baby Shark has 14 BILLION views as this moment. And while views aren’t everything - an informed discussion with trusted figures that propel public perception forward is also required. Which is exactly what’s happening on a daily basis on platforms like X.
Do not be discouraged by the fact that it’s difficult to quantify progress on this issue considering how many years it takes to affect change. This is going to be a slow crawl that we must not only endure but actively work to improve. If this issue remains unresolved we are simply biding our time until someone makes a mistake or a Mad King decides to take us with him. Effectively wiping out humanity and rendering all that we’ve achieved pointless.
I want to live in a future where nuclear conflict doesn’t just pop into our heads every now and then only to fill us with an inescapable sense of dread. Or at the least I’d like it if we could build the foundations for future generations to eventually solve this problem. If a TV movie in 1983 was able to have the affect that it did - what does that say for what’s possible in 2024? 2030? 2060? It’s up to us to decide that.
I leave you with a quote from the late President John F. Kennedy
"My fellow Americans, let us take that first step. Let us...step back from the shadow of war and seek out the way of peace. And if that journey is a thousand miles, or even more, let history record that we, in this land, at this time, took the first step."
That about does it for this week's White Pill Wednesday newsletter - hope you enjoyed reading and be sure to share it, we could all stand to be a little more whitepilled!
You can find me on Twitter as @Wh1tePill where I post more often.